Russia is a major superpower that plays an important role in international politics, while Ukraine is a former Soviet Union country that has been independent since December 1, 1991. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have often occurred. The beginning of this tension began to be felt when 90% of Ukrainians approved a referendum on independence from the Soviet Union so that Ukrainian independence was legal de jure (based on law) and recognized by the international community. The referendum on independence from the Soviet Union was what made Ukraine decide to become independent when the Soviet Union collapsed so that Ukraine felt that it had never been part of Russian history. However, according to the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, Ukraine is part of the history of the development of Russian civilization that should always cooperate and be in close contact with Russia.
Since 1991, the relationship between the two countries has experienced complicated times because it is decorated by many tensions and suspicions that have sparked conflict between the two countries. Entering 2019, Volodymyr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine. During his campaign, Zelensky said he would end all existing tensions and would push Ukraine towards Europe rather than Russia. He adopted policies against Russia’s wishes and also registered Ukraine as an official member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is considered by Russia as a form of threat to its sovereignty. This is related to the position of the Ukrainian state which is directly adjacent to Russia so that if Ukraine joins NATO, there will be no longer a barrier between Russia and NATO. This is a threat to Russia. Therefore, Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO.
THE EFFECT OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT ON ENERGY AND FOOD RESOURCES
Since the beginning of this century, energy has taken a central place in the economic development and social progress of nations around the world. It is undeniable that we live in an energy era. Oil is one of the most important energy resources for life because it can be used for industry, economic development, and the prosperity of a country. However, recently the world is facing a global energy crisis with natural reserves rapidly depleting due to excessive consumption. Many bloody conflicts have an impact on the deprivation of energy resources, one of which is the Russia-Ukraine conflict that will occur in 2022.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a topic of discussion around the world. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the world is experiencing concerns regarding the increase in energy commodity prices and their impact on the slowdown in global economic growth. This can be seen from the emergence of various views that the price of oil could reach US$ 125 or even US$ 170 in the coming months if this conflict disrupts the supply of Russian production.
This view is quite reasonable. As an illustration, currently, the share of Russia’s oil production reaches around 13% of the world. With tight global oil supply and demand, supply disruptions from Russia will have a significant impact on meeting global demand.
In addition, Russia and Ukraine are big players in world food production. They represent 53% of global trade in sunflower and seed oils and 27% of wheat. In Africa, 25 countries import more than a third of their grain from Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, it is known that the Russo-Ukrainian war has cut off supplies from Ukrainian ports, which once exported large quantities of cooking oil as well as cereals such as corn and wheat. This problem has reduced global supply and caused alternative prices to soar. Global food prices were almost 30% higher than the same time last year. The World Food Program has warned that 45% of people in Ukraine worry about getting enough to eat. Despite the lack of food resources, people in Ukraine have been left without water, heat, and electricity. People there look for melted snow for drinking water. Could every drop of water be more expensive than a drop of blood?
This Russo-Ukrainian conflict could threaten tens of millions of people to the brink of food insecurity followed by malnutrition and mass starvation. Some countries could also face long-term famine if Ukrainian exports were not returned before the war. The impact of war on food security, energy resources, and finance is systemic, severe, and accelerating. There is only one way to stop this storm of storms, and that is that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine must end.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT RESOLUTION EFFORT
During the fierce Russian invasion of Ukraine, it is difficult to look ahead. News from the battlefield, the diplomacy table, as well as the condolences of the families of the dead and the refugees came in waves. Even though the impact was so great, it seems that from both sides it is still difficult to find a bright spot from the conflict.
Judging from the facts above, it is necessary to find a way to resolve the conflict. One of the best options to be chosen in this two-state conflict is mediation. Currently, Russia and Ukraine are already trying to mediate. The two sides negotiated and conveyed each other’s demands. This process is called peacemaking (the initial stage of conflict resolution) as an effort to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In the first round of negotiations, Russia presented forward several demands that were used as conditions to stop the attack. After hearing the demands, Ukraine did not immediately agree to them.
However, at the second and third rounds of meetings Ukraine began to soften for the safety of the Ukrainian people. Both sides decided to hold a temporary ceasefire to distribute medical supplies and food aid to the refugees. From this fact, it can be seen that every meeting between Russia and Ukraine is getting softer and they can understand each other so that the peace process between the two sides will be faster and smoother. Now, Russia and Ukraine are heading to the next stage in the peace process, namely peacekeeping (implementing the results of the negotiations). After negotiating, both parties will implement the agreed decisions by following the rules in the agreement.
Peacemaking and peacekeeping efforts are certainly not sufficient as a resolution to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is because the conflict is increasingly experiencing escalation. After all, the causes of the emergence of the conflict are not resolved. If left unchecked, the conflict could endanger other countries around Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, currently, it is necessary to make peacebuilding efforts (rebuild a peaceful atmosphere by recommencing communication and cooperation) that reach the stage of positive peace (a peace that creates an atmosphere of harmony and harmony) so that the two countries can make peace in the long term and the conflict no more escalation. To reach this stage, cooperation, and support from other (state) actors as mediators are needed, such as Turkey, Belarus, Indonesia, etc.
In this peace process, Indonesia is one of the countries that is considered capable of being a mediator and helping resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict because of Indonesia’s experience in resolving conflicts such as the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia in 2008. During this Russia-Ukraine conflict, Indonesia has the opportunity to play its role as a country that adheres to the principle of being free and active in its foreign policy. The meaning of being free and active here does not mean active and neutral, but also by contributing, both in the form of thoughts and assistance to conflict resolution. One of the contributions that Indonesia can make is humanitarian assistance to the potential humanitarian tragedy in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In addition, Indonesia can also encourage de-escalation so that the negotiation process can run effectively and allow the opening of humanitarian lines.
CONCLUSION
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are common. The beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict which occurred again in 2022 was the difference in interests between the two countries. Russia wants to reunite the former Soviet Union colonies while Ukraine wants to join the West, especially with NATO. The best conflict resolution as an effort to resolve the conflict is mediation. Conflict resolution efforts to achieve peace can be carried out through 3 stages, namely peacemaking, peacekeeping, and peacebuilding. At the peacebuilding stage, Indonesia is one of the countries that can be a mediator in this conflict because of its good track record in terms of mediator conflict resolution.
