In a lay man’s term International Relations simply means the relations between the different countries and their people around the globe. Having a group of more than 190 countries we have a lot to see, discuss & analyze even in a single day in international affairs.
Over the past decade there are wide range of issues as rise of China & its dictator Xi, decline in USA hegemony & its weakening, Islamic terrorism ISIS and it’s global fallout, a diminishing power Russia igniting wars, environmental activism , the Modi’s rise and the India progress from business to environment, a dividing house – Europe, BREXIT threat to Europe’s unity, right movement around world by minorities, weakening of global institutions, rise of right wing governments and the COVID pandemic and its consequences.
Firstly we shift the attention to the power which had been at centre stage since end of World war 2 – United States Of America. With Obama exit from power in 2016 an amateur business man enters the White house – Donald Trump.
Surrounding several controversies from pornstars to tax evasion . He did all to make America great again via- leaving the trade pact with Canada , withdrawal from World Health Organization, trying to build a border wall with Mexico, annoying the NATO counterparts, breakaway from Iran deal but it landed the USA in a mess. His response to the COVID-19 , rise of racism ( George Floyd killing – Black live protests ) dented the American hegemony. But he led several good initiatives as- Visit to North Korea to normalize ties 1st sitting president to do so , aggressive policy against China, non lecturing the developing countries ( especially on Human rights), brokering a deal with Taliban in Qatar( which actually backfire itself) , purposing a solution to Israel Palestine issue.
However the 2020 Presidential elections saw the worst with capitol building rioted by Trump supporters on charges that the result of Presidential election were flawed. It marked the fall of USA beliefs in democracy. The 2020 Presidential election saw the rise of a veteran Democrat Joseph Biden as the 46th USA president who try to heal the American society from various flaws from racism , terror, women rights. The election also saw an Indian descent Kamala Harris becoming the 1st female Vice President of USA .
A great wave of happiness flow in India as one of its daughter have been at the helm of power . Biden administration try to revive the USA lost charm via working closely with the allies, NATO, strengthening of QUAD, rise of AUKUS literally aiming to contain China. But problems still remains under him whether it is racism, inability to control gun terror,fast withdrawal from Afghanistan where its mission not succeed & leaving the minorities, women under the shades of conservatives mullas. How can one forget the video of a person falling from an aeroplane while trying to flee the Taliban regime? A self obsessed America that has been on the world stage for more than 7 decades now faces much challenge and challenger is mainly in the Asia.
“ Hide Your Abilities & Bide your time ” – Deng Xiaoping , this famous saying had finally come true for China and the man behind this is President Xi Jinping whose so called “ China’s Dream ” has caused expansionist behaviour which threatens the world peace. Mr. Xi was appointed as the President in 2013 and since then he slowly and steadily tightens the grip over the power. A major change in China’s policy came when he was allowed to remain in the helm of power for lifelong. Besides the China’s politics his regime has witnessed much more to ponder upon. His dream project ‘ The Belt & Road Initiative ’ that aims to replicate the ancient silk route across Asia & Europe though looks great with aim to built world class infrastructure but the devil’s lies in details.
Evidences have showed the project acted as a debt trap for many economies that end up in leasing their sovereign land to China for long time. Also the ports constructed around the Africa and south east Asia resembles the “String of Pearl ” theory that aims to encircle India. There are also reports of Human right violation, much environment degradation around the project . Under Xi China has militarized the South China Sea and now eying to take Taiwan even if forcefully it seems to be very real after it downgrades the Hong Kong status.
But the biggest jolt that China gave to world is in the late 2019 when a flu starts spreading around the Chinese cities . Initially the country tried to hide it but when conditions worsened & under global pressure it share the details with the World Health Organization and the flu came to known as COVID-19 which proves to be a pandemic from which the countries still suffering across world.
But as usual when entire world was suffering from COVID-19 China’s army tried to ignite a border standoff with India breaking away all the past peace agreements.
The issue is not still solved with continuous meetings at the higher ranks of military.
Moving from China its northern neighbour Russia under Putin is trying to find a place for the Russia where it will be again a global superpower and at centre of world affairs. In 2014 Russia decides to annex Crimean peninsula but beyond its expansionist aims it is the necessity of Russia as it want a route to black sea for trade which it fears it could lost given increasing closeness between Ukraine and USA.
Amid COVID pandemic it launches a vaccine named ‘SPUTNIK V’ a cold war mentality. But in 2022 it go beyond the warning to Ukraine and invades it on the pretext the it has become necessary to wipe out the Nazi forces. But beyond that everyone knows that Russia donot like a NATO Ukraine on its border.
From Russia we are now to move to an island nation in Europe and former colonial power ‘The United Kingdom Of Great Britain’. In 2016 the Britain voted to exit the European union in order to get back its sovereign power whether in financial matters, law making, jobs , fishing rights. But the Brexit led to doldrum in Britain in political sphere with two Prime ministers exited and a reactionary conservative Boris Johnson coming to power on rhetoric of ‘ Get Brexit Done’ . However Brexit not only bring happiness to Britons, there were large scale violence in Northern Ireland , Scottish were also unhappy as majority of Scottish people voted to remain in European Union.
But at current times Britain faces a lot of challenges whether it is the Johnson’s party gate allegations during COVID lockdown which made him to face a ‘ No confidence Motion’ recently , demand for independence of Scotland or growing anger in Irish part of UK about the border check issues of BREXIT.
A Britain’s former colony saw rapid changes in the last decade. The past decade brings major reforms for India which starts with the 2014 general election victory of Gujarat State’s Chief Minister Narendra Modi becoming the 14th Prime Minister of the Country. Modi has done a great work in all fields with major focus on digitalization , governance, privatization, education, foreign policy. The country has seen its increased stature in International relations since he takes the office. With 2019 general election results it become clear that he is here to stay for decade.
One of the major step after his 2019 election victory was the removal of article 370 which fuels the sentiments of separatism in Jammu & Kashmir. Also the government response towards the COVID pandemic was pro poor which confirmed by his party and its allies victories in many state polls. Also India made many self COVID vaccines and while western nations striking vaccines deals with the global pharma India supplied the vaccines to all needy nations. During current Ukraine crisis it has taken a strategic position with focus on dialogue as solution between the two countries. It not only evacuated its students from war torn Ukraine but also helped other nation students to evacuate. India today is heading to be a major player in global stature either defence , business, governance. Well all that will be decided in the upcoming 2024 general elections.
Here a special reference is to be made to Pakistan which as usual continue to have a state sponsor terrorism as its policy. Under Imran Khan the dream of ‘Naya Pakistan’ could not be fulfilled. The reeling corruption, nepotism, army interference made him to exit from the post. Its growing nexus with China over CPEC is becoming a bad dream for itself. With economy in doldrum the new government begging before the Islamic countries to give them some aid. The separatism is also brewing in Balochistan which wants to get separate from it.
The decade has also seen many terrorists attacks affecting countries globally. From Frankfurt Airport Shooting in Germany to Christmas Day bombing in Nigeria , from France to Iraq , from Syria to Australia, from China to Canada no country remain immune to it . However the worst affected region due to it was the Arab peninsula which is indirectly also the supporter of the terror. But the impact was worst on Yemen which see its self becoming a proxy warfare between the two arch rivals Iran & Saudi Arab. Till today also Yemen is suffering from worst humanitarian crisis as migration, food shortage, lack of basic infrastructure etc.
But the world’s attention was caught by the rapid rise of Islamic State OF Iraq and Syria , the ISIS which was led by the leader Abu Bakr Al- Baghdadi who want to establish his own caliph but lastly killed by his own masters, the USA who had supplied him sophisticated weapons, tanks ,ammunitions to defeat the Russia domination and the regime of Syrian dictator Bashr al Assad so he basically become the Jinnie who denied the Aladdin .
Also in 2021 the Taliban returned to Afghanistan which added fuel to the fire as the conditions of women, girls, the minorities is only going to worsen under conservative mullas.
Beyond that also the middle east saw a what came to be known as ‘The Arab Spring’ that tried to dismantle the corrupt , repressive regimes of middle east dictators. However the spring succeed in few and unable to do so in the rest of countries. The biggest change came in the country Tunisia which saw transition from dictator Ben Ali to purely a multiparty democracy. The role of technology cannot be underrated in this revolution which often called as the ‘Facebook Revolution’.
Talking of the movements the decade was an unprecedented one which saw several movements shaking the world. The environment activism gained momentum with the rising pollution, temperature, deforestation. The lead in this was taken by a Swedish activist girl Greta Thunberg whose protest outside the Sweden parliament attracted the attention. ‘The Friday For Future Movement’ that called to adopt the lifestyle that suits the environment make the global community to take steps towards the environment protection. But the steps are too short whether the Paris Deal, Glasgow conference that could travel the long path to protect environment.
The marginalized will remain so until they unite for a collective action. The decade saw the worst racist attacks on minorities in so called advanced western world. The inhumane killing of a black George Floyd by a white police officer with his last “I can’t breathe” led to massive ‘Black lives Matter ’ protests that spread to USA, Canada, Europe , Latin America but at the end they falls short of what they want to achieve . The worm of racism still persists in those developed countries.
Also the ‘Farmer Movement ’ in India against the agricultural reforms led to wide ranging protests whether peaceful or violent. The images of people hoisting the flag of a particular religion over national flag at Red Fort during Republic Day invited criticism. But at the end the government decided to withdraw the reforms which cools the movement. The movement shows that the Gandhian method of non violence still has credibility in 21st century.
The decade also saw the failure of the Global governing Institutions from United Nations to World Health Organization. The UN had failed at all to prevent the Crimean war, Ukraine crisis, the equity in vaccine distribution, the China’s adherence to the ruling of the ICJ on South China sea etc. The WHO failure to deal with COVID crisis, the latency in declaring it a pandemic & its closeness with the China all invited it a criticism.
Finally a word on the decade’s largest disaster the COVID-19 pandemic. All countries from developed like USA, Canada, UK, Europe to developing like India, Brazil, China suffers. As per latest estimates of WHO due to COVID at least globally 3.3 million people have died and with new and more powerful waves are at the doorstep this is bound to increase. Thanks to the vaccine non equity as developed nations have ensured more than the needed doses while the rest world as Africa, Asia, Latin America faces the shortage. But until everyone is vaccinated no one will be safe.
From the above it is clear that the international politics is not about following the rules, here might is right and why one should follow the global rules when you can break and create the new one. The power dynamics of the world are shifting very fast and now it is the time for the old player’s to leave the centre stage for the new entrants.
As Kautilya had said “Realism, power & cunningness govern international relations ”.
